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Top 10 Tech Predictions for 2009
Some should be surprising
By Matthew David
Steve Jobs famously said that technology is easy to predict - it changes slowly. This may be so for Steve Jobs ultra fast mind, but for us mere mortals, the changes come a little faster. With that said, there are some things that will come in 2009 that are sure certainties. In this article, you will see what we predict will be the big 10 technology changes coming over the next 12 months.
10 - New iPhone from Apple
Less of a prediction and more a "they are going to keep striking gold while they can" assertion that Apple will keep the ball rolling with a new iPhone. The Mac Fanboys are raving that a new iPhone will have all sorts of new features including a 5MP camera, video editing and a larger screen. For my 2 cents, I think the larger camera is a shoe in, but the form factor will stay the same. The speculation that the phone will also have a forward facing 1.2MP camera for iChat is simply that, speculation.
9 - Office Products Everywhere
The Web has matured to the point where complex applications such as Word can really be done online. This year will be the year that Microsoft Office is ported to the Web (at least Word, Excel and PowerPoint) but expect fierce competition. Google wants to add to their Search/Gmail 1-2 punch with a KO productivity suite you cannot live without. Google Docs will increase their feature sets. Look to see additional products (a database tool and a real presentation solution would be good) and expect Google to press hard against Microsoft.
8 - The Recession - where has all the money gone?
Unless you are immune to the loss of money, you are feeling the pinch of the recession. Unlike the Post 9/11 recession back in 2001 where Tech was hit between the eyes, expect technology to help people through this recession. The first benefits will be cheaper hardware (see #4 below); second, expect cheap internet VOIP and other services that connect people for free or nearly free to become primary communication tools for many customers who want to ditch their Land phone and replace their cell phone with a WiFi only device; and, third, expect illegal file sharing services to swell in popularity - we may all be broke, but we still want our MTV.
7 - RIA - the new Battle Royale
There is a big battle happening in the Web sphere and it is being fought on three fronts: the main battle is with Web browsers. Microsoft is losing browser market share on a daily basis. Mozzila's FireFox, Apples' Safari and Google's Chrome are gaining at Microsoft's loss. This year all four companies will launch new versions of their software. Internet Explorer 8 will only help reinforce Microsoft's position that they are not taking Web standards seriously while the speedy Chrome and FireFox 3.1 will run circles around the Redmond giant. At the end of the year expect the start of the next wave of Web browsers with FireFox 4 and Safari 4.0 supporting native MP4 video and simple 3D canvas control.
The second battle is in the mobile/Smartphone arena: Apple will increase their dominance with the Apple iPhone and RIM will come back hard as the profession choice. The dark horse will be Google with Android. The losers will be Microsoft and Palm. Sorry guys, you took the wrong call when it came to these technologies.
6 - Sony PlayStation IV is launched
For the third Christmas running, Sony's ultra hi-tech game system has come in a firm third place behind the Microsoft Xbox 360 and the relatively low-tech Nintendo Wii. What gives? In 2009 Sony will figure out that it is not the laundry list of cool tech that makes a fun system, but the games and the way you play. Nintendo has this field licked and Microsoft is coming on strong. A wish of mine is that Sony gets it's game mojo back and comes out with a radically different type of game system that they may call PlayStation lIVe that takes the interactive elements of the Wii, the massive game market philosophy of the iPod Touch and wrap it up for my 2009 Christmas tree for less than $250.
5 - The death of Blu-Ray
2008 killed HD-DVD. 2009 will be the death of Blu-Ray discs. Why drop $200+ for a fancy next-gen DVD player when you have to drop $30-$40 for each movie you already own? In 2009, expect NetFlix, Apple TV and Time Warner to go to HD war with Blu-Ray and deliver cheaper, more interesting and better value solutions over the Internet. A solution cash starved consumers will gobble up.
4 - Netbooks arrive
Recession driven cheaper computers are sprouting up like mushrooms after a storm. The new devices are slim in features (many do not even have a DVD drive) and they have little or no hard drive but they do come with Windows XP or Linux, they do have WiFi and they come in under $450. These new devices are coming to be known as Netbooks. It is a catchy name. Target is even running a Linux Netbook for $299. If all you do is check email and surf the Web, then this may be the device for you.
3 - New OS's from everyone
This is no surprise, but both Apple and Microsoft will release new Operating Systems. Apple will look to beat Microsoft to the punch with OS X Snow Leopard coming months before Windows 7. Did you hate those Microsoft "Mojave Experiment" commercials? Then expect no peace when the Microsoft marketing machine gets cranked up to full throttle with the launch of Microsoft Windows 7 and Office 2009 in time for the holiday season.
2 - Internet on your TV finally gets a good solution
The goal of allowing the Internet to integrate with the TV has been a promise for more than a decade. There has been a series of miserable failures. Microsoft's WebTV is the most lauded example. Expect a device to come out later this year that will re-write how the Internet and your TV can harmoniously interact together. Such a radical device will come from the only company that seems able to dream up the simple in complex solutions: Apple. When will this device be announced? A good bet is that Apple super star Steve Jobs will use such as radical product to promote his own return to health and fitness in the public world around June.
1 - 2009 is the year of Cloud Computing
The biggest event to happen this year is in effect a series of events. The common thread will be Cloud Computing based services. Whether architected on Microsoft's, Amazon's or Google's cloud services, expect a lot of big name desktop solutions to come to the Web. The basics include email, calendar, but complex solutions such as word processing, spreadsheets and presentation tools will be part of your daily toolset by the end of the year. This time next year you will start to wonder why did you ever install software on your computer.
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